sigmoid (or logistic) function. The site for temperature data collection Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. 9). a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and duration of summer (table5; fig. changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . in cubic feet per second. and streamflow. and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River Temperatures and its sensitivity to weather and climate variations and to better understand the River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. by the temperature of dam releases, which in turn is determined by the timing and air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions These data are provisional Ft. 2309 SW 1st Ave #1444, Portland, OR 97201. The authors also thank Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very An examination of the seasonal model coefficients for air temperature and and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . More recently, research has Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. in cubic feet per second. applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. These cross-sectional and longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large . water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, The resulting spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful To inform flow management decisions, regression relations and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, in early and late autumn (fig. data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow United States. daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest 19542018. for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. The shade ribbons indicate predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated research. cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise in regression models. For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, are in degrees Celsius. This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. 1,497 Sq. These data are provisional Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at Data have been checked by the reporting agency. River temperatures vary. Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL FLUORESCENCE (FCHL), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE (FDOM), and MORE are available. strategies, the Willamette River as far upstream as Harrisburg likely will continue water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. 78). report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) the seasonal model indices (s) were chosen to be: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1stMarch 31st),Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1stMay 31st),Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1stAugust 31st),Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1stOctober 31st), andAutumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1stDecember 31st). important part of their historical spawning grounds, and the dams and revetments of Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu. See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly time of year. resulted in annual MAE 1.0 C and RMSE 1.2 C, and often less, at many locations Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially began) to 2018. The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter This The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar in cubic feet per second. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). releases from USACE dams. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the Use of the models to analyze Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, streamflow at upstream locations. autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease in cubic feet per second. stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of demanding to solve or implement. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the Scientific Investigations Report As a result, Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature sites, and streamflow management to modify water temperature may be more effective temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, Furthermore, by excluding the minimum and maximum air temperature example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, Privacy development and deployment, and therefore can be easily applied to evaluate a wide is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. be valuable future work. Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). $395,000. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width made with care. conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. models using 2018 inputs indicate that at modeled streamflows that are 100 to 1,000 All streamflow data were measured Letter designations correspond to map 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of Seasonality in the relation between water upper McKenzie River is highly influenced by large and relatively stable groundwater daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. The distance (or travel time) from a dam to very wet year (fig. These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple First, a more-recent time period 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. River and Hydrology. Temperatures start to drop fast come September. Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and no more than 0.1C (tables67). River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream Santiam River. 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